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The most important video you'll ever see
Posted: Tue Oct 19, 2010 2:37 pm
by null0010
Arithmetic, Population, and Energy
http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p ... 47A45EF50D
video description wrote:When I saw this lecture at a conference in 1995, I came out blasted, thinking "This needs to be required listening for every person on the planet. Nothing else will matter if we don't understand this." The presenter is Albert Bartlett, a retired Physics prof. at U of Colorado-Boulder. The presentation is titled "Arithmetic, Population, and Energy," and I introduce it to my students as "The most boring video you'll ever see, and the most important." But then again, after viewing it most said that if you followed along with what Bartlett is saying, it's quite easy to pay attention, because the content is so damn compelling. If you forward this to everyone you know, we might actually stand a chance in staving off disaster in the global finance system, peak oil, climate change, and every other resource issue you can think of. Without a widespread understanding of what Bartlett's talking about, I think we won't be able to dodge ANY of those issues. BE ABSOLUTELY SURE you catch the parts about "the bacteria in the bottle" (in Part 3) and the list comparing things that add to the problem and things that address the problem. If we don't choose from that right-hand column, nature will choose for us. I for one, would rather we be the ones making the choice.
Posted: Tue Oct 19, 2010 3:30 pm
by Lothar
Is this another one of those \"OMG exponential growth peak oil\" vids? I think someone once suckered me into watching a part of it. Not doing it again, not for a 2-ish hour video series.
Instead, why don't you go ahead and post a reasonable summary of the key points?
Posted: Tue Oct 19, 2010 5:15 pm
by null0010
I was doing a video-by-video summary but then I realized that would negate the purpose of watching the video.
This guy is a mathematics professor relating rather simple arithmetic (the exponential function) to resource consumption (including oil). It's about things like peak oil, but I think it would be more correct to say that this professor is talking about how politicians and journalists are either deliberately misleading with the things they say about data concerning resources and growth, or stupid.
Re:
Posted: Tue Oct 19, 2010 8:18 pm
by Stroodles
null0010 wrote:Alright, for the sake of the lazy and uninterested, I will summarize it for you. Watch this space, it'll take a bit.
I feel dissed.
Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2010 12:01 am
by Grendel
Into part 3 now. Very enjoyable, smart dude.
Edit: definately worthwhile to watch. Go for it Lothar.
Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2010 7:47 am
by Will Robinson
I'll wait for the summary before deciding on spending the time to watch it because I'm afraid Lothar may have pegged it for what it is.
I did see an interview with a guy that is the former CEO of Shell Oil (I think it was Shell) and he laid out some interesting and dire projections on current and future energy use on the global scale, not peak oil but basic stuff where supply/demand and infrastructure collide and price responds and then people and governments react to that response.
It was not fun to think he's probably well informed and had no ulterior motive to bring such a warning to light.
Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2010 7:54 am
by woodchip
So is this a updated version of Ehrlich's \"Population Bomb\"?
Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2010 12:37 pm
by Grendel
He's explaining what exponential growth means and what its implications are in the real world, laying out some facts most people tend to ignore, trying to sensitize the listener to what certain numbers in the news actually mean. I didn't think watching it was time wasted. Certainly going to forward the link to some friends.
Re:
Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2010 1:09 pm
by Lothar
Grendel wrote:He's explaining what exponential growth means
Does he understand that populations do not grow exponentially, but logistically?
See figure 3 at
http://www.growth-dynamics.com/articles/Kurzweil.htm for a comparison of the two.
I'll have to remember this line for later:
"He criticizes people who make forecasts by simply extrapolating straight lines on linear trends. But he does the very same thing on logarithmic paper."
Posted: Wed Oct 20, 2010 1:58 pm
by Grendel
Yes.